My skeptical challenge

   Lynn at Astrological Musings has commented on my last post. She accuses me of data mining and quoting out of context when I constructed my poll. I could attempt to defend myself, but that would lead nowhere but a resounding chorus of "Nyuh-uh!" - "Nyuh-huh!" Lynn believes her reading of me should be convincing. I remain unconvinced. No amount of he-said-she-said is going to change that.
   I have another alternative to offer. Yesterday I asked Lynn if she would take my challenge, without describing what that was. Today, in the comments section of her blog, she said, "I refuse to consider the possibility that astrology has no validity because I know as an incontrovertible fact that it is an uncannily accurate way to uncover the psychological dynamics of an individual." If that is true, then a person who has had an uncannily accurate reading done by a talented astrologer should be able to pick that reading out from among several other, conflicting readings. At least, it seems so to me. If I am committing an error of reasoning, please point it out to me.
   My challenge to Lynn is this: I propose we test her astrological abilities in precisely that way. Here is how I see it working.

1) I would post requests on some Internet message boards asking for volunteers to participate in the test. Message boards that are nominally neutral on the topics of astrology and skepticism would be chosen. For example, we might post on a cooking message board, but not a science message board. We might post on a car enthusiasts board, but not a new age spiritualism board.

2) From among all the volunteers, I would randomly select twelve participants, with the only stipulation being that they represent twelve different signs of the zodiac (Lynn may want to stipulate an avoidance of cusps. This would be agreeable to me). Those participants would send me their natal information - birth date, time, and location. I would forward that information to Lynn, with the names and any other identifying information removed. She would receive ten sets of birth information identified only by the numbers one through twelve.

3) Lynn would prepare a chart for each set of natal information, and e-mail me twelve readings. I would edit the readings to remove any hints about which sign the reading represented, and e-mail them back to her for proof reading to ensure the important, specific details of each reading were not altered or removed. I would then send each participant three readings. Their own, and two more, selected randomly from among the other eleven. Participants will be asked to identify which reading describes them most accurately.

4) The laws of chance suggest that one third of the participants would select their own readings, and two thirds would not (in the event that they were simply guessing). Astrologers, I hope, would argue that a much higher percentage would select the correct reading. The words, "uncannily accurate" imply a significantly higher percentage. At the end of the test, I will post an article on my blog describing the results. If 50% or more of the participants select the correct reading, I will state, uncategorically, that I believe astrology deserves more study. If 80% or more are correct, I will state, again uncategorically, that it seems there's something to this astrology thing after all. I will pledge to leave that article at the top of the front page of my blog for no less that one full week.

   Now, I know there are some potential methodological problems with this test design. The masking of identities, and randomizations should be done by an independent third party to ensure proper blinding, for example. I am willing to entertain suggestions of an unbiased, neutral observer to do that, if Lynn and I can agree upon one. As well, the sample size is far too small for statistical significance. Still, I think it would be a fun and instructive exercise. I took your skeptical challenge. Will you take mine? What do you say Lynn?

   Or, any other astrologer out there.

Tags: skepticism, astrology, skeptical challenge