Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Toronto psychic May Miller revisited

   I'm working on a year in review post, but this topic deserved it's own forum. If you recall, back in June I talked about a Toronto psychic named May Miller, who appeared on the local morning show. She made a series of predictions on that show, which I determined to keep track of in order to gauge her accuracy. And the time has come to do so...
   First, have a peek at the
list of her original predictions, and my commentary on them at the time, and then come back here and we'll have a look at just how good a "psychic" Ms. Miller is.

Prediction #1: Germany will win the World Cup.

   Strike one. Germany lost to Italy in the Semi-finals. Italy went on to win the World Cup, much to my chagrin. It might almost have been worth it for her to have got this one right.

Prediction #2: While the USA will have to contend with several hurricanes this year, none of them will be as bad as Katrina.

   Strike two. While this was not a difficult prediction to get right, for reasons I outlined at the time, she managed to cock it up completely. You see, not one hurricane touched United States soil all year. So, while she was right about the fact that Katrina would not be surpassed, the fact that the hurricane season was the polar opposite this year than last is so remarkable that her prediction, as she worded it, can only be called a miss.

Prediction #3: Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie will marry this year, and have another child. That child will not be adopted, but via a pregnancy.

   Strike three. Not only did Brad and Angelina not marry, they made a public statement to the effect that they have no intention of doing so. Also, Angelina, to date, has not become pregnant.

Prediction #4: Jennifer Lopez is pregnant right now. The news will come out soon.

   Nope. No news of a pregnant J-Lo. Sorry.

Prediction #5: The morning show interviewer, who is pregnant herself, will deliver her child on July 1st or 2nd.

  
Liza Fromer gave birth to a baby boy on July 15th, 2006. Another swing and a miss. Where are we, so far? Oh, yeah, zero for five.

Prediction #6: Toronto will have a bad year for shootings, but 2007 will be better due to improved enforcement.

   Again, this seemed like a safe prediction at the time, based on a record number of gun murders in Toronto in 2005, and an apparent trend toward the same during the early part of 2006. Unfortunately, for Ms. Miller at least, the trend was not borne out, and Toronto's murder rate returned this year to a normal range, more in line with 2004 and the years leading up to it. Almost half, in fact, of last year's count.
   Will 2007 be even better? It's hard to predict based upon the statistics. Toronto has seen a significant increase in gang related violence in the last few years. On the other hand, the per capita murder rate in Toronto has been declining for thirty years. So, your guess is as good as mine...or May's. Still, I have to count this one as a miss based on the first half of the prediction.

Prediction #7: Toronto need not worry about a terrorist attack.

   The wording of this one is a bit funny. Not so much as a prediction as a reassurance. Does Toronto need to worry about a terrorist attack? Our politicians seem to think so. According to US intelligence, we are on an Al-Qaeda list of prospective targets. But then again, according to US intelligence, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, so it's hard to say what that's worth.
   In Ms. Miller's favour, we did not have a terrorist attack in 2006. However, the authorities here arrested a number of people who were allegedly engaged in planning one, which incident prompted Miller's comments in the first place.
   She would, if asked, however, say that part of the reason we need not worry about an attack is our superior police and intelligence services will prevent any future plans from coming to fruition as well. While I don't agree with her, I cannot argue based on current and past events. May gets a grudging hit on this one.

   So, Toronto psychic May Miller's final record on the predictions she made on the Breakfast Television show on June 20th of this year, is onefor seven, or just under fifteen percent. Now believers will trumpet that one hit as being proof of Ms. Miller's awesome psychic abilities, but honestly, would you pay someone for a psychic reading based upon a fifteen percent success rate? If the answer to that is yes, you deserve to be fleeced by this fraud.

   In other fraudulent psychic news, it has been five years and nine months since
Sylvia Browne agreed to be tested for the James Randi Educational Foundation's Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge, and five years and four months since she agreed to a specific and definitive test protocol. She has yet to come forward and complete the test she agreed to take. For more evidence of Sylvia Browne's bumbling, incompetence, visit StopSylviaBrowne.com.


9 comments:

Anonymous said...

ah! I find that funny...she managed to keep ytour attention though and check the facts by yourself... not that bad; so are you going to open a new forum for MMiller especially or not?
Good luck with your pursuit in regards to Miller; I personally use common sense, facts, and also rely on some historians/politicians/linguists who know all about it when I follow some important worlds' events.
Valerie
http://journals.aol.co.uk/iiimagicxx/surreality/

Anonymous said...

In fact your post and Mary Miller made me think further... I find all her predictions very revealing and whether or not they were right is not what is important, for she and you and me and all of us are only responsible for the predictable sequences of our actions, ethically, aren't we? therefore she is only responsible for what she did and said or predicted. It happened that most of her predictions did not show up. One prediction which attracted my attention was the one on terrorism, and I believe this one is basically carrying the answer to all the above (or other predictions). What you can see, you don't need to predict for it is already there. What you don't see is perhaps where everything happens, in secret, things you will never know. In a subtle way, this psychic lady is speaking to who can hear her only, and is saying something like: "what is really happening is usually too big for you to see it, or some development is too discreet and secret for you to even be aware of it as it is happening away and free from public scrutiny". So, perhaps it is like when you read the media, what can you really believe when you read the media, the journalists' political side, what they say or what they do not say? I think your psychic woman is very subtle indeed.
Valerie
http://journals.aol.co.uk/iiimagicxx/surreality/

Anonymous said...

Nice work Paul.  As you pointed out before, one of the problems with these psychics is that too often nobody goes back and checks their misses, allowing them to either say anything or only remind people of their hits.  Anyone care to bet that the morning show isn't going to be bringing any of this up?

Valerie: I've read your posts a couple times and have to admit I don't understand the point you're trying to make.  I did just wake up though. However, I don't think you can say that Miller kept Paul's attention and made him check the facts.  This is, in fact, the very last thing she would want him to do, and Paul, not Miller, deserves the credit for this.  Are you being ironic when you say you think Miller is subtle? You say that "she is only responsible for what she did and said or *predicted*" (my emphasis) but, if I'm reading you correctly, you also suggest her many wrong predictions don't matter, and her one (rather safe) prediction counts for all.  If you'd done a poll, the vast majority of people would have guessed that Toronto would go a year without any terrorist attacks. Are they just as subtle? Heck, I'll do Miller one better: Toronto will have no terrorist attacks, asteroid hits, or alien invasions in 2007!

Happy New Year all.  

Anonymous said...

  Thanks for pointing out Valerie's magical thinking, Alex. When I read it, it sounded an awful lot like the common woo-woo protestation: "the paranormal cannot be tested by science." That is complete hogwash, of course, and the only ones who make the claim are those who have zero understanding of what the word "science" truly means.
-Paul

Anonymous said...

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, guess what?  It probably is a duck.  If you really want to see some funny stuff, though, catch an episode of Ghost Hunters on Sci-fi.  Its a wonderful thing to see grown men scare the crap out of each other.

Anonymous said...

My friend Josh & I hate Sylvia Brown.  We TiVO her on Montel and watch & laugh as she sits there and lies.  It's really kind of sad, though, that people believe her :[
Hope you had a good Holiday!
Hugs,
Heather

Anonymous said...

I don't know who Sylvia is but I have a special loathing for the James Van Praaghs who make a fortune off of people's grief. Screw them along with the televangelists. Bah!

Anonymous said...

Do you believe that intuition exists/ all corruption and pretenses aside?
natalie

Anonymous said...

Natalie,
  Intuition is nothing more than smart, unconscious guessing. There is nothing paranormal about it.
-Paul