The case for Psychics

   I have been corresponding with an applicant for the JREF one million dollar challenge. This  the second part of a four part article. For the beginning of the story click here.


The Case For Psychics

   What, you may well ask, about other paranormal phenomenon, like psychic abilities? How are they tested by the JREF?
   The short answer is: they aren't. Or, at least, very rarely. You want the long answer? Well, OK.
   To start at the same point as we did with dowsers, the position of the skeptical community on psychics, mediums, telepaths, fortune tellers, mind readers, etc., is that they do not exist. No valid scientific evidence has ever been presented to support the existence of psi abilities. Anecdotal evidence abounds, however. Almost everyone knows someone who has been to a psychic, or a tarot card reader, and was amazed at the experience.
   A skeptic will tell you that psychics et al. are almost certainly using a technique called cold reading with their clients. They start by making general statements about a person, like, "you are well liked by those around you," or, "you have a hidden side you don't show to all people." Virtually all people will agree that blanket statements like those are true of themselves. Once they have broken the ice, the fishing starts. They may start to say something, "I'm seeing a young person..." or "I'm getting something about car..." and leave it open ended, hoping for their subject to volunteer some information. If the subject does offer information, it is quickly digested by the psychic, and will reappear later in the reading. Usually, by that time, the subject has forgotten that they originally gave out the information, and are astounded by the pronouncement.
   Remember the quotation from Francis Bacon from the previous section. Every time the psychic gets a 'hit,' the subject immediately forgets the previous four or five misses. The psychics are aided by the fact that their subjects are subconsciously willing to participate in the charade. Even if they were dragged in by a family member, and start out claiming to be sceptical, the fact is, they are there. They are sitting in the chair, across the table from Madame Coocoobird. Deep inside, they want to believe, and so, they eat up all the good guesses the psychic makes, and conveniently forget all the wildly off target stabs in the dark. Clients of psychics routinely insist that they did not tell the psychic anything.
   If a subject could tape record a psychic reading, and listen to it later, they would be amazed to count up all the things on which the psychic was way off. They would also be amazed at how much information they had volunteered themselves, and then forgotten about. Not surprisingly, virtually no psychic will allow a recording to be made of the sitting. Electronic devices interfere with the psychic vibrations, don't you know.
   Often, the subject has been dragged out to the psychic by a third party; a relative, or a friend. In that case, the third party has probably already discussed the subject with the psychic in great detail. The psychic may uncannily appear to know things about the subject that they could not have known. This is called a warm or hot reading, when the psychic has some detailed information about the subject prior to the visit. As many psychics get a lot of business from referrals, warm readings are very common. And the friend never volunteers, "oh, I told her that." No, the friend is a willing accomplice to the deception because she believes she is helping someone in need.
   Lets get back to the JREF challenge. Psychics come in two varieties: those who honestly believe they have psychic abilities; and charlatans, who are out to take people's money. Charlatan's tend not to apply for the challenge because they know they do not truly have a paranormal ability, and therefore cannot pass a test. Many of those who believe in their psychic powers do not apply because they believe their abilities are God given, and are not be used for monetary gain. It is interesting to note that many psychics who charge for their services claim that their talents are God given, and are not to be used for monetary gain. You may draw your own conclusions.
   Of those few alleged psychics who do apply for the challenge, there always a few charlatans who think they can pull a fast one on the JREF. Once they realise how stringent the test protocol will be, they simply evaporate. Of those believers in their own ability who apply, many have unorganised minds, and have a very difficult time understanding the why the statement "because I have experienced it" does not qualify as irrefutable evidence. They commonly have no understanding of what experimental controls are, and why they are necessary. Usually, they will slowly figure out that they will not be allowed to ask their subject questions, and get answers. Once that happens, they eventually just disappear.
   As an example of a protocol to test a self proclaimed psychic, let us examine an actual recent claim for the JREF one million dollar challenge. The applicant, from the UK, claimed that he could project his thoughts into another person's mind. This claim is much easier to test than the reverse, that of reading a person's mind. The applicant was referred to a local skeptical society near him to facilitate testing. After a period of negotiation, this protocol was agreed upon.

"The Test Protocol

1. Immediately prior to the test, the applicant...will be asked to state for the record (on videotape)that the test procedure was mutually agreed upon, and that he agrees that the test is a fair one which will either validate or refute his claim.

2. The applicant...will sit in one room, observed and videoed by at least one member of the testing group for ratification purposes and transparency in the testing procedure.

3. A ‘receiver’, chosen by [the applicant] and accompanied to the test by [the applicant]. The identity of the nominated ‘receiver’ must be notified to the [testers] before the test and may not be changed thereafter.

4. The ‘receiver’ will sit in an adjacent room and will also be observed and videoed by at least one member of the testing group.

5. Neither [the applicant] nor the ‘receiver’ may have an electronic device capable of transmitting or receiving information of any kind during the testing procedure.

6. The receiver will be given a pen and single sheet of paper and instructed to write down anything he believes he/she is receiving from [the applicant] during the test. He/she will be asked to write down the texts from 1 to 5, indicating the order in which they were ‘transferred’ and‘received’.

7. No contact of any kind between [the applicant] and the ‘receiver’ is permitted once the test has begun.

8. Neither [the applicant] nor the ‘receiver’ will be allowed to leave their respective rooms during the test for any reason. If this has to happen for any reason, the test will have to be abandoned and restarted or rescheduled.

9. A typed list of 20 short sentences and a pen will be given to [the applicant].

10. [The applicant] will select any five from this list to ‘transmit’ to the ‘receiver’.

11. [The applicant] will select a sentence from the list for ‘transmission’ and will write the number 1 beside that sentence.

12. [The applicant] may not make any noise of any kind during the ‘transfer’ which could be interpreted as an attempt to communicate with the ‘receiver’.

13. [The applicant] will say when he believes he has successfully transferred the text to the receiver.

14. Steps 10 through 13 will be repeated for each of the remaining four sentences, writing 2, 3, 4, and 5 beside the sentences as they are selected.

15. A reasonable time limit may be applied. Each sentence should be capable of ‘transference’ within one minute.

16. The test is over when [the applicant] says that the fifth selected sentence is believed to have been successfully ‘transferred’.

17. Immediately following testing (but PRIOR to revealing the test results), [the applicant] is once again required to state on record (on videotape) whether he believes the test to have been fair, and conducted according to the agreed-upon protocol.

18. The observer in the ‘receiver’s’ room will be informed when the test is over and will request the ‘receiver’ to sign the sheet of paper that was used. The ‘receiver’ will then be asked to accompany the observer back to the adjacent room from where [the applicant] carried out the test.

19. The ‘receiver’ will be asked to hand over the signed sheet which will be placed in view on a table.

20. The five sentences highlighted in the selected books will be compared to any texts written down by the ‘receiver’.

21. In order to pass the test:

a. Four out of the five selected sentences must match sentences written by the ‘receiver’ word for word. It is agreed that nothing except a verbatim match will constitute a ‘hit’.

And...

b. The sentences must be in the correct order, i.e. the text ‘transferred’ first (numbered 1) must be the same as the text ‘received’ first (numbered 1 on the ‘receiver’s’ signed sheet).

22. Immediately following the results being revealed, [the applicant] will be asked if he still believes the test was a fair one.

23. If he failed he is offered the opportunity to explain WHY he failed, should he wish to do so.

24. This will conclude the testing process."

   Although this record is publicly available on the JREF website, I have removed all references to the applicant's identity and specific location.
   The protocol negotiations having successfully concluded, the JREF happily announced that the test had been scheduled for November 27th of 2004. One week before the test, the applicant sent the testers an e-mail stating that he thought they should provide the 'receiver,' rather than the applicant. "Oh, and by the way," he wrote, "this weekend's no good for me." Can you see where this is going?
   The testers replied:

"Your assertion/objection that your selecting the receiver for the test would somehow "nullify all scientific criteria" is without foundation.
   Your knowing and bringing the person is the most reasonable and transparent option. The only thing about the receiver that matters is that they are known and trusted by you. This protects the test procedure against one possible and obvious source of bias. If we chose the person to receive it would introduce the possibility of the accusation of experimenter bias or even down right fraud, as we could be accused of selecting someone who was instructed to deny that they have 'received' anything."

The applicant was also reminded that a significant amount of work on both sides had gone into the negotiation of the protocol, that the test date had been agreed to by all parties, and that they expected him to appear. You can see where this is going, can't you?
   The test never took place. You may draw your own conclusions. The applicant still haunts the JREF forums, accusing the JREF of backing out of the test, and generally making an ass of himself.
   I'm sorry. I called this the case for psychics, didn't I?

   Tomorrow: The Golden Sound Intelligent Chip