You say you can do what?

I originally began writing this article almost five months ago. There were several resons why it did not appear until now, the main one of which I will explain in the final installment. This is part one of a four part series on skepticism, the James Randi Educational Foundation, and my involvement with an applicant for the one million dollar paranormal challenge. I hope you enjoy it.

Part 1

   I have been corresponding with an applicant for the JREF $1,000,000 paranormal challenge. His claim is that he can hear the difference between a CD that has been treated by the Golden Sound Intelligent Chip, and one that has not.
   "Wait. Slow down. Back up," I hear you say.
   OK, I'll start at the beginning.

The James Randi Educational Foundation

   I mentioned James Randi here several months ago. He is a former stage magician who now runs a non-profit organisation called The James Randi Educational Foundation. The mission statement of the JREF is

"to promote critical thinking by reaching out to the public and media with reliable information about paranormal and supernatural ideas so widespread in our society today."

   To that end they have established the One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge. The challenge offers

"a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event."

   The key words in that statement are, of course, under proper observing conditions. It is remarkable to note how few people have a clue what that means.

The Anatomy of a Test

   As an example of what constitutes proper observing conditions, let us examine the example of a double blind test of dowsing ability. Dowsers are those who claim to be able, with the aid of a forked stick, or two bent wires, or any number of other devices, to locate underground water, or metal, or electronic devices. There seem to be as many different claims as there are dowsers.
   The position of the JREF, and the skeptical community in general, are that dowsers cannot do any such thing, and are merely fooling themselves into thinking they have some kind of ability, and moving the forked stick themselves. The dowsers protest strongly that the movement of the dowsing rod is due to an outside influence. They even offer to do demonstrations of the ability by having you hold the rod yourself, and feeling the seemingly involuntary movement.
   My wife, when I was discussing this topic with her, related to me a story of doing this with some group or another years ago. They used two coat hanger wires, bent at ninety degrees near one end. Holding on to the short end of the L shaped wires, they walked around a graveyard. Upon passing over a grave, my wife told me, the wires inexorably moved inwards, and crossed. "But," I said to her, "you knew where the graves were." She walked away with a thoughtful expression on her face.
   Psychologists call this the ideomotor effect. From The Skeptic's Dictionary, the ideomotor effect states:

"that muscular movement can be initiated by the mind independently of volition or emotions. We may not be aware of it, but suggestions can be made to the mind by others or by observations. Those suggestions can influence the mind and affect motor behavior."

In other words, the wires cross, or the rod dips, where the dowser wants it to, even if the dowser is not consciously aware he or she is affecting it .
   The same ideomotor effect can be observed in the workings of the common Ouija Board. People who have used the mysterious talking board will attest to the fact that the pointer apparently moves of its own volition. Here is a quick experiment to try. Blindfold the person, or persons, who have their fingertips in contact with the pointer. Now, have a third party turn the board so that the sitters do not know which way it is oriented, and have that third party silently observe the movement of the pointer, and record any message that might appear. People who try that experiment unfailingly find that the pointer does not move at all, or that the letters it points to spell nothing of any sense. It seems the 'spirits' cannot spell out a message if the sitters cannot see the board.
   The dowsers, of course, deny that the ideomotor effect is what is happening. As proof, theypoint to their record of successfully finding water. By doing this, they are doing what most purveyors of the paranormal do when bragging about their records. As it was so eloquently written by Sir Francis Bacon over four hundred years ago:

"And such is the way of all superstition, whether in astrology, dreams, omens, divine judgments, or the like; wherein men, having a delight in such vanities, mark the events where they are fulfilled, but where they fail, though this happen much oftener, neglect and pass them by."

That is to say, they point out their hits, and conveniently ignore their misses. It is the purpose of a well designed test to make note of both the hits and the misses, and then decide if the result is due to some unusual talent, or pure chance.
   In order to test the claims of a dowser, or any applicant for the one million dollar challenge for that matter, the JREF begins by asking for a clear statement of what the person can do, and how he proposes to demonstrate it. This is the first major stumbling block for many applicants. A great number of the people corresponding with the foundation seem to have difficulty expressing their abilities in a concrete way. They tend to ramble on vaguely and aimlessly about theories of why their 'powers' work, without being able to state exactly what their powers are.
   Dowsers tend not to fall into this category. In most cases, dowsers are able to state their claims in a straightforward manner. All that is needed is a protocol to test them. A commonly used one is described here.
   We will begin with a hypothetical dowser who claims to be able to locate water. The question we pose to him is, can you locate water that is sitting in a bucket in a parking lot? His answer is, as is to be expected, always yes. So, we continue, if there were ten buckets, and one had water in it, you could tell us which one? Again, we will be answered with the affirmative. Excellent! Let us begin.
   We first ask the dowser to examine the proposed test area, to make sure there are no external phenomenon which would compromise his abilities. The dowser will use his dowsing implement, whatever it may be, to scan the area. Invariably, he will find some places in the subject area to be a problem. Those areas will be carefully taken note of, so they can be avoided.
   Next, we will ask the dowser to examine the buckets we propose to use,and make sure that nothing about the buckets will affect his ability. After he has OKed the buckets, we will ask him to place the buckets himself, so that they are far enough apart not to influence one another and give him a false reading, and so that they will not be near any of the previously discovered problem areas. We will give the dowser as much time as necessary to be comfortable with the placement of the buckets.
   Once the buckets have been placed, and we are ready to begin the actual test, the dowser will be asked to make a statement for the video camera that will be recording the test. The statement will be that the test protocol was arrived at mutually, and that he agrees it is a fair test of his abilities. On with the test!
   To begin, the dowser is asked to select a bucket by means of some random device. James Randi likes to use playing cards numbered one through ten. The dowser will select a card, and the bucket number that matches the number on the card will have a small amount of water placed in it. The dowser will then demonstrate that he can find that water using his ability. This will be repeated several times. Note that the dowser is fully aware of which bucket the water is in at this stage of the test. Next, the buckets will be covered by a sheet of wood or corrugated cardboard, so it is not possible to see inside them. The same random selection process will be repeated several times, with the dowser again demonstrating his ability to locate the water when he already knows which covered bucket it is in. At any time, the dowser may relocate a bucket if he feels there is something interfering with his ability. This is, according to Randi, an essential part of the test for five reasons:

"(1) The performer has the opportunity to try out the setup, and make any necessary changes, adjustments, or re-locations that he thinks are needed.

(2) The process of randomizing numbers, etc., which is sometimes unfamiliar or unknown to the performer, becomes clear.

(3) The performer becomes familiar with the sequences and rules of the test.

(4) The performer has the opportunity of deciding for himself — in the "open" tests — whether it's his powers, or just his foreknowledge of the answer, that is actually at work.

(5) After the "blind" test is done, following the "open" series, the performer cannot offer the excuse that his powers were not working at this time."

    The blind portion of the test is now ready to begin. This hypothetical test is what is referred to as 'double blind.' What that means is that, not only will the subject of the test, the dowser, not know which bucket the water is in, the observer of the test will not know either. Here is how it goes.
   The observer and the subject will step around a corner, and an assistant will draw a card to randomly select a bucket. Water will be placed in the selected bucket, and all the buckets will be covered. Care must be taken not to spill any water on the ground, or move any of the buckets, so as not to leave any clues for the subject. After that is done, the assistant will leave the scene and the subject and the observer will return. The subject (the dowser) will be given as much time as necessary to determine which bucket the water is in. After he decides, the covers will be removed, and he will be shown if he was successful or not. The same procedure will be followed for as many times as the test requires. At the end of the test, the results will be tabulated, and the dowser will again be required to make a statement for the cameras that the test was a fair one, mutually agreed upon. If the subject has failed the test, he will be allowed to speculate on why that was.
   What invariably happens, is that the dowser is able to locate the water 100% of the time when he already knows where it is. During the blinded portion of the test, the dowser is able to locate the water no more often than one would expect chance would allow. For example, if there are ten buckets, the dowser will be correct somewhere in the area of one out of every ten attempts. The more attempts are made, the closer to chance the results are.
   The JREF has tested dozens of dowsers over the twelve years they have been in existence, using protocols very similar to the one above. The results are always the same. Always. No dowser has ever passed the test. In fact, no applicant of any description for the one million dollar prize has ever passed even the informal preliminary test. You may draw your own conclusions.
   What about the Golden Sound Intelligent Chip? Hey, you asked me to back up. Now you're gonna hear the whole story.

   Tomorrow: The Case For Psychics